Saudi Arabia vs. Iran: How Will Donald Trump Influence The Middle East Cold War?

When President Barack Obama moves on from the White House in January, he will leave in place a precarious power struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran after years of revamping Washington's approach to the region. Then it will be Donald Trump's turn to weigh in, and Tehran may have found themselves an unlikely ally in the Republican businessman who threatens to upset the entire outlook of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. 

Obama's administration, while critical at times of the kingdom, supported Saudi Arabia in its political endeavors across the Middle East, often at the expense of Iran. The administration's landmark multilateral nuclear treaty with Tehran, however, saw unprecedented levels of negotiation between Western and Iranian officials and lifted years-long economic sanctions against Iran.

The president-elect is expected to scale back U.S. intervention in the Middle East. While there is not likely to be a warming of U.S.-Iranian relations under a Trump administration, Washington's absence could work in Tehran’s favor, emboldening efforts to expand its already growing sphere of influence without fear of U.S. reprisal and with potential sponsorship by Russia. 

Sunni Muslim-majority Saudi Arabia and Shiite Muslim-majority Iran have long been locked in what analysts have referred to as "a regional cold war." The rival powers have not engaged in direct military conflict, but back opposing military and political movements. In the Syrian Civil War, Iran supports Syrian President Bashar Assad against a network of rebel groups sponsored by the West, Turkey and Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia. In Iraq, Shiite militias and an Iran-friendly government in Baghdad also add to Riyadh's worries over Tehran's influence. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is directly involved in a massive military campaign in Yemen against Houthi rebels, who represent the country's Zaidi Shiite minority and receive political and possibly military support from Iran.

The Obama administration often censured Tehran-aligned movements while supporting allies of Riyadh. On the diplomatic level, Obama fought diligently for the historic Iran nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and eventually managed to get Iran and five other countries on board with it.

Trump used the deal as fuel for his campaign, during which he took a particularly tough stance against Iran and for which he was lauded by conservatives. He vowed to tear up the nuclear treaty and threatened to shoot Iranian ships out of the water if they provoked the U.S. Navy.

Trump also went after Saudi Arabia, leading experts to question the depth of his support for the traditional U.S. ally.

“Actually, everything about Trump’s foreign policy is in doubt. He said something totally contradictory on his campaign. On one hand he attacked the JCPOA, but on the other hand, he also criticized the U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia,” Iranian journalist and Middle East analyst Saeid Jafari told International Business Times in an email.